F&O expiry outlook: Nifty’s 16,700 target intact, Bank Nifty may trade below 35,500; check support, resistance
NSE Nifty 50 index is eyeing 16700 target in the current week to 26 August options expiry, which also happens to be monthly futures and options expiry of August contracts. Even as Nifty is witnessing a slight correction on the back of weak global cues, it has managed to remain above 16000 levels. Analysts see Nifty’s support at 16350 this week, while 35000 for Bank Nifty index. Bank Nifty may face a hurdle at 36000 on the upside. Moreover, today’s closing would be crucial because analysts believe that a weekly close below 16,400 will not augur well for the market. “Bank Nifty has seen nearly 10 lakh PUTS OI being added at 35000. The options data show that the Bank Nifty may trade in a range of 35000-35500 in the coming week,” Milan Vaishnav, CMT, MSTA, Consulting Technical Analyst and founder, Gemstone Equity Research & Advisory Services, told Financial Express Online.
Milan Vaishnav, CMT, MSTA, Consulting Technical Analyst and founder, Gemstone Equity Research & Advisory Services
On the expected lines, the Nifty opened with a gap down but showed tremendous resilience as well. Options data for as of now suggest that PUT OI addition is seen at 16400 and large Call writing is also seen at 16500. This means that the Nifty may remain trapped in this capped range. However, looking at the PCR which is now well below 1.20, the markets are poised in a healthy way and are unlikely to see levels below 16350-16400.
Looking at Bank Nifty, it has seen nearly 10 lakh PUTS OI being added at 35000. This level is likely to play out as support in the immediate near term. The options data show that the Bank Nifty may trade in a range of 35000-35500 in the coming week.
Rajesh Palviya, VP– Research (Head Technical & Derivatives), Axis Securities
Nifty as per the current data has witnessed Long Unwinding with a price cut of -0.70% and decrease in OI of -3.05 lakh shares compared with Wednesday, while Bank Nifty has also seen Long Unwinding with price cut of -1.30% & OI unwinding of -0.91 lakh shares. Nifty highest OI on the CALL side in the monthly expiry scheduled 26 August 2021, is at 16,500(56.41L) & 16,600(46.49L) strikes respectively wherein writing of 30.25 lakh shares & 16.15 lakh shares was witnessed indicating strong resistance zone at 16,500, while on the PUT side highest OI is at 16,400(54.97L) & 16,500(48.85L) strikes; wherein writing of 25.33 lakh & 16.03 lakh share was seen at 16,400 & 16,300 strike respectively indicating a strong support zone.
In Bank Nifty the highest OI on the CALL side in the monthly expiry is at 35,500(16.97L), & 36,000(25.26L) strike; while on the PUT side highest OI is at 35,000(20.62L) & 34,000(12.22) strike, with 35,000 acting as a pivotal level for the expiry as there has been addition of 10.94 lakh shares on CALL side & 10.46 lakh addition on PUT side suggesting that any sustain move on either side of this level will decide the trend in Bank Nifty. While on the writing front, 34,500 put has seen writing of 11.96 lakh shares followed by 34,000 put writing 12.24 lakh shares indicating a strong support zone.
Sameet Chavan, Chief Analyst – Technical and Derivatives, Angel Broking
The global markets started to turn a bit shaky after the FED minutes. As a result, we witnessed a decent gap down opening today. However, it was certainly not as lethal as it was showing at one point yesterday. Today’s close would be quite crucial because a weekly close below 16400 will not augur well for the market. This will lead to some extended profit booking in the coming week. However if we managed to recover and close above 16550, this would be a sigh of relief for bulls. In our sense one should stay light at this moment and keep a close eye on the mentioned scenarios. In any case, we advise traders to stay light and avoid taking undue risks for a while.
Santosh Meena, Equity Research Head, Swastika Investmart
We are seeing the first correction after a decent rally ahead of August month expiry on the back of weak global cues but we are in a strong uptrend and every dip is a buying opportunity till Nifty is trading above the 16000 mark. 16350 is an immediate and strong support point which was an earlier breakout level and if Nifty manages to hold this level then we can expect a recovery in the market while 16150 will be the next support level. 16500 is the max pain level where Nifty will try to expire August month series but if Nifty manages to trade above this level then we can expect a move towards the 16650-16700 zone while if Nifty trades below 16350 level then we may expect expiry to end on a weak note.
Bank Nifty has important support at the 35000 level and if it manages to hold this level then we can expect a recovery but 36000 will remain a key hurdle in the upside. On the downside, 34500 is a crucial support and any decisive move below 34500 may lead to an ugly expiry.
Gaurav Udani, CEO & Founder, ThincRedBlu Securities
This week Nifty opened with a gap down of almost 170 points and Bank Nifty with a gap-down of 600 points. There is definitely a possibility of a short-term reversal possible. If Nifty closes below 16350, it may test 16200 and 16150 levels in the coming days. 16480 and 16550 will act as strong resistance for Nifty. Bank Nifty can test 34500 and 34200 in the coming week.
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